As Gujarat goes to the polls, the ruling BJP seems to have an upper hand over main Opposition Congress. However, given the uncertainties that are part of any electoral battle, the fight is far from over and it would be imprudent to predict the result before the last vote is cast.
While the state’s Chief Minister Narendra Modi is determined to win a third straight term, his political opponents (Congress, the Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) and his rivals within his party) are also not leaving any stone unturned to dislodge him from power.
The 2012 Assembly elections holds national significance for both the Congress and Modi, who aims to win a big mandate to secure the backing of his party as its Prime Ministerial candidate in 2014 General Elections.
Although, most of the poll surveys have predicted a comfortable victory for Modi, who had won his previous terms riding on the Hindutva wave and the development plank; the focus this time is whether or not the BJP leader will win with a huge margin – at least equal 2007 tally of 117 seats.
Since the 2002 communal riots, Modi has completely dominated the political landscape in Gujarat and has in a way converted it into BJP’s laboratory of Hindutva politics. Modi’s aggressive brand of politics created a personality cult with him becoming the biggest face of the saffron brigade.
Buoyed with the electoral success and the economic progress of Gujarat, the ‘cult’ of Modi, often referred to as ‘Moditva’, soon replaced the Hindutva card there. It is this factor, more than the secular forces that the Congress and the GPP - third entrant in the electoral fray led by a rebel BJP heavyweight Keshubai Patel – is fighting to unsettle Modi’s applecart.
Both BJP and the Congress have carefully designed their election strategy, choosing not to touch the emotive communal issues, and made development vs non-development as their main poll plank.
While camp Modi is relying on their leader’s impressive record - strong governance, job creation, sound infrastructure, promises of affordable housing and zero bureaucratic hassles for industrialists - there are certain others factors, which can play a decisive role in this year’s election.
The GPP led by Keshubhai Patel, Modi`s senior in the BJP and the tallest leader of powerful Patel community is likely to eat into saffron party`s votes particularly in the Kutch/Saurashtra region, which sends 58 MLAs to the legislative assembly.
Denying tickets to Muslims
Post-Godhra riots, Modi has made serious attempts to win over Muslims. Last year’s Sadbhawana Yatra was a case point before controversy erupted over Modi not accepting Muslim headgear presented to him by a maulvi. Also, Modi, while releasing the party’s election manifesto, promised development to 60 million Gujaratis, without any bias.
Lokayukta and the battle against Corruption
In the past eleven years of his rule, Modi has shown little respect to institutions like Lokayukta and made the Legislative Assembly almost powerless. Modi has steadfastly opposed the appointment of the state’s Lokayukta, hurting his party’s stand on corruption. By resisting the appointment of Lokayukta - a major demand of Congress - and making the Assembly ineffective, the Modi government has compromised the public`s interests and stooped low on the parameters of accountable and transparent governance. This has led the Opposition to claim that corruption in Gujarat is institutionalised, widespread and deeply entrenched at all levels.
The Godhra ghost
Though Modi has taken serious efforts in softening his image of a hardline leader and promote religious harmony, this may not be enough. The 2002 communal riots in Godhra continue to haunt Modi and he is still seen with suspicion by the minorities and the international community.
Despite all odds, Modi`s supporters hope that the merits of his governance will strike a chord with middle-class voters who form the BJP`s traditional support base. He enjoys support of prominent industrialists, corporate houses and NRI Gujaratis settled abroad. Many business tycoons believe that Modi’s rise will give strong support to industry and attract huge investments. Modi’s ability to cut red tape and provide one point clearance will work in his favour. However, a lot will depend on Modi’s performance in urban areas where he enjoys massive support.
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